Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models project an overnight low of 56–58 °F for San Francisco on August 24, 2026, driven by the persistent marine layer, moderate onshore westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and typical late-summer coastal cooling. This places the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 36 % implied probability, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 56 °F and recent August 2026 observations of 56–58 °F. The 60–61 °F outcome at 24 % reflects minor upside variance if the marine layer thins earlier, while the 24 % on 49 °F or below remains an outlier given the all-time August 24 record low of 51 °F and absence of cold-air advection. No significant model shifts or synoptic changes have altered this consensus ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
49°F or below 48%
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 22%
60-61°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
48%
50-51°F
22%
52-53°F
13%
54-55°F
11%
56-57°F
21%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
21%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
<1%
49°F or below 48%
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 22%
60-61°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
$55 Vol.
48%
50-51°F
$55 Vol.
22%
52-53°F
$6 Vol.
13%
54-55°F
$6 Vol.
11%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
21%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
21%
62-63°F
$65 Vol.
9%
64-65°F
$70 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$185 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models project an overnight low of 56–58 °F for San Francisco on August 24, 2026, driven by the persistent marine layer, moderate onshore westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and typical late-summer coastal cooling. This places the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 36 % implied probability, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 56 °F and recent August 2026 observations of 56–58 °F. The 60–61 °F outcome at 24 % reflects minor upside variance if the marine layer thins earlier, while the 24 % on 49 °F or below remains an outlier given the all-time August 24 record low of 51 °F and absence of cold-air advection. No significant model shifts or synoptic changes have altered this consensus ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$452End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models project an overnight low of 56–58 °F for San Francisco on August 24, 2026, driven by the persistent marine layer, moderate onshore westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and typical late-summer coastal cooling. This places the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 36 % implied probability, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 56 °F and recent August 2026 observations of 56–58 °F. The 60–61 °F outcome at 24 % reflects minor upside variance if the marine layer thins earlier, while the 24 % on 49 °F or below remains an outlier given the all-time August 24 record low of 51 °F and absence of cold-air advection. No significant model shifts or synoptic changes have altered this consensus ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$452End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models project an overnight low of 56–58 °F for San Francisco on August 24, 2026, driven by the persistent marine layer, moderate onshore westerly winds of 10–20 mph, and typical late-summer coastal cooling. This places the 58–59 °F bin as the clear market leader at 36 % implied probability, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 56 °F and recent August 2026 observations of 56–58 °F. The 60–61 °F outcome at 24 % reflects minor upside variance if the marine layer thins earlier, while the 24 % on 49 °F or below remains an outlier given the all-time August 24 record low of 51 °F and absence of cold-air advection. No significant model shifts or synoptic changes have altered this consensus ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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