Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a typical late-summer marine layer will keep San Francisco’s overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s on August 24, with forecasts centering on 56–58 °F under partly cloudy skies and moderate west-southwest winds. These conditions align with the 58–59 °F bin that currently commands the highest market-implied probability, reflecting the strong historical average low of 56 °F and the absence of anomalous onshore flow or clear-sky radiative cooling that could drive sharper drops. Traders have assigned notable weight to colder outliers, consistent with the inherent spread in short-range ensemble guidance and the possibility of stronger fog or lighter winds, while warmer bins remain discounted given persistent coastal moderation. Updated model runs and morning observations tomorrow will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
49°F or below 44%
58-59°F 37%
60-61°F 22%
56-57°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
44%
50-51°F
15%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
22%
58-59°F
44%
60-61°F
22%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
1%
49°F or below 44%
58-59°F 37%
60-61°F 22%
56-57°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
$55 Vol.
44%
50-51°F
$55 Vol.
15%
52-53°F
$6 Vol.
9%
54-55°F
$6 Vol.
12%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
22%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
44%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
22%
62-63°F
$65 Vol.
9%
64-65°F
$70 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$185 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a typical late-summer marine layer will keep San Francisco’s overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s on August 24, with forecasts centering on 56–58 °F under partly cloudy skies and moderate west-southwest winds. These conditions align with the 58–59 °F bin that currently commands the highest market-implied probability, reflecting the strong historical average low of 56 °F and the absence of anomalous onshore flow or clear-sky radiative cooling that could drive sharper drops. Traders have assigned notable weight to colder outliers, consistent with the inherent spread in short-range ensemble guidance and the possibility of stronger fog or lighter winds, while warmer bins remain discounted given persistent coastal moderation. Updated model runs and morning observations tomorrow will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$452End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a typical late-summer marine layer will keep San Francisco’s overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s on August 24, with forecasts centering on 56–58 °F under partly cloudy skies and moderate west-southwest winds. These conditions align with the 58–59 °F bin that currently commands the highest market-implied probability, reflecting the strong historical average low of 56 °F and the absence of anomalous onshore flow or clear-sky radiative cooling that could drive sharper drops. Traders have assigned notable weight to colder outliers, consistent with the inherent spread in short-range ensemble guidance and the possibility of stronger fog or lighter winds, while warmer bins remain discounted given persistent coastal moderation. Updated model runs and morning observations tomorrow will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$452End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a typical late-summer marine layer will keep San Francisco’s overnight low in the mid-to-upper 50s on August 24, with forecasts centering on 56–58 °F under partly cloudy skies and moderate west-southwest winds. These conditions align with the 58–59 °F bin that currently commands the highest market-implied probability, reflecting the strong historical average low of 56 °F and the absence of anomalous onshore flow or clear-sky radiative cooling that could drive sharper drops. Traders have assigned notable weight to colder outliers, consistent with the inherent spread in short-range ensemble guidance and the possibility of stronger fog or lighter winds, while warmer bins remain discounted given persistent coastal moderation. Updated model runs and morning observations tomorrow will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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