Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature in Milan of 20–22°C for August 24, driven by light easterly winds, high pressure near 1015–1019 hPa, and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight. Recent observations show a cooling trend with a 16.2°C low on August 22 amid scattered showers, yet current guidance points to limited overnight drop due to elevated dew points around 17–19°C and only modest thunderstorm risk after sunset. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty mainly in timing of any evening convection, which could briefly suppress the low if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical August minima near 19–21°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across 17–19°C outcomes as model updates arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 24?
18°C 21%
17°C 21%
19°C 21%
16°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
18%
16°C
19%
17°C
21%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
19%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
6%
18°C 21%
17°C 21%
19°C 21%
16°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
12°C or below
$39 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$93 Vol.
3%
15°C
$212 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$5 Vol.
19%
21°C
$150 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$138 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature in Milan of 20–22°C for August 24, driven by light easterly winds, high pressure near 1015–1019 hPa, and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight. Recent observations show a cooling trend with a 16.2°C low on August 22 amid scattered showers, yet current guidance points to limited overnight drop due to elevated dew points around 17–19°C and only modest thunderstorm risk after sunset. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty mainly in timing of any evening convection, which could briefly suppress the low if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical August minima near 19–21°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across 17–19°C outcomes as model updates arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$881End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature in Milan of 20–22°C for August 24, driven by light easterly winds, high pressure near 1015–1019 hPa, and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight. Recent observations show a cooling trend with a 16.2°C low on August 22 amid scattered showers, yet current guidance points to limited overnight drop due to elevated dew points around 17–19°C and only modest thunderstorm risk after sunset. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty mainly in timing of any evening convection, which could briefly suppress the low if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical August minima near 19–21°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across 17–19°C outcomes as model updates arrive.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$881End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a minimum temperature in Milan of 20–22°C for August 24, driven by light easterly winds, high pressure near 1015–1019 hPa, and radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies overnight. Recent observations show a cooling trend with a 16.2°C low on August 22 amid scattered showers, yet current guidance points to limited overnight drop due to elevated dew points around 17–19°C and only modest thunderstorm risk after sunset. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty mainly in timing of any evening convection, which could briefly suppress the low if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weigh these variables against historical August minima near 19–21°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across 17–19°C outcomes as model updates arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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