Model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, consistent with the late-August climatological average near 13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points of 8–10°C that limit strong radiative cooling. Boundary-layer mixing and any overnight cloud increases could raise the low by 1–2°C, while clearer conditions might allow modest additional cooling. Trader positioning shows elevated implied probabilities on sub-8°C outcomes despite this guidance, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight heat-loss rates and model spread ahead of official verification by local stations. New forecast runs tonight will likely refine the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 24?
6°C or below 38%
7°C 28%
9°C 27%
10°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
6°C or below
38%
7°C
28%
8°C
27%
9°C
27%
10°C
27%
11°C
27%
12°C
9%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
1%
6°C or below 38%
7°C 28%
9°C 27%
10°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
6°C or below
$25 Vol.
38%
7°C
$0 Vol.
28%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$10 Vol.
9%
13°C
$80 Vol.
1%
14°C
$155 Vol.
1%
15°C
$286 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$140 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, consistent with the late-August climatological average near 13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points of 8–10°C that limit strong radiative cooling. Boundary-layer mixing and any overnight cloud increases could raise the low by 1–2°C, while clearer conditions might allow modest additional cooling. Trader positioning shows elevated implied probabilities on sub-8°C outcomes despite this guidance, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight heat-loss rates and model spread ahead of official verification by local stations. New forecast runs tonight will likely refine the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Volume
$666End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, consistent with the late-August climatological average near 13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points of 8–10°C that limit strong radiative cooling. Boundary-layer mixing and any overnight cloud increases could raise the low by 1–2°C, while clearer conditions might allow modest additional cooling. Trader positioning shows elevated implied probabilities on sub-8°C outcomes despite this guidance, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight heat-loss rates and model spread ahead of official verification by local stations. New forecast runs tonight will likely refine the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$666End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, consistent with the late-August climatological average near 13°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points of 8–10°C that limit strong radiative cooling. Boundary-layer mixing and any overnight cloud increases could raise the low by 1–2°C, while clearer conditions might allow modest additional cooling. Trader positioning shows elevated implied probabilities on sub-8°C outcomes despite this guidance, reflecting uncertainty in exact overnight heat-loss rates and model spread ahead of official verification by local stations. New forecast runs tonight will likely refine the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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