**Strong meteorological consensus supports the market's 99% implied probability for a 28°C low in Shenzhen on August 23.** Official forecasts and model runs from sources including local meteorological services show persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and light southerly winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical summer regime. Recent thunderstorm activity and warm advection have kept overnight temperatures elevated, with hourly trends projecting a minimum near 27-28°C rather than deeper drops typical of drier conditions. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen feature nighttime lows around 25-27°C, but current atmospheric stability reinforces the higher floor. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid clearing of clouds combined with stronger northerly flow, though short-term model consensus shows low likelihood before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 23?
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$26,700 Vol.
$26,700 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$26,700 Vol.
$26,700 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
22°C or below
$321 Vol.
No
23°C
$203 Vol.
No
24°C
$256 Vol.
No
25°C
$219 Vol.
No
26°C
$366 Vol.
No
27°C
$440 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,495 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$14,496 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,468 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,104 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$334 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong meteorological consensus supports the market's 99% implied probability for a 28°C low in Shenzhen on August 23.** Official forecasts and model runs from sources including local meteorological services show persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and light southerly winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical summer regime. Recent thunderstorm activity and warm advection have kept overnight temperatures elevated, with hourly trends projecting a minimum near 27-28°C rather than deeper drops typical of drier conditions. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen feature nighttime lows around 25-27°C, but current atmospheric stability reinforces the higher floor. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid clearing of clouds combined with stronger northerly flow, though short-term model consensus shows low likelihood before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$26,700End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong meteorological consensus supports the market's 99% implied probability for a 28°C low in Shenzhen on August 23.** Official forecasts and model runs from sources including local meteorological services show persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and light southerly winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical summer regime. Recent thunderstorm activity and warm advection have kept overnight temperatures elevated, with hourly trends projecting a minimum near 27-28°C rather than deeper drops typical of drier conditions. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen feature nighttime lows around 25-27°C, but current atmospheric stability reinforces the higher floor. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid clearing of clouds combined with stronger northerly flow, though short-term model consensus shows low likelihood before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,700End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Strong meteorological consensus supports the market's 99% implied probability for a 28°C low in Shenzhen on August 23.** Official forecasts and model runs from sources including local meteorological services show persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and light southerly winds limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical summer regime. Recent thunderstorm activity and warm advection have kept overnight temperatures elevated, with hourly trends projecting a minimum near 27-28°C rather than deeper drops typical of drier conditions. Historical August baselines for Shenzhen feature nighttime lows around 25-27°C, but current atmospheric stability reinforces the higher floor. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected rapid clearing of clouds combined with stronger northerly flow, though short-term model consensus shows low likelihood before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions