Current National Weather Service forecasts project Chicago's overnight low on August 24 near 60–63°F under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer radiational cooling moderated by Lake Michigan. Trader consensus clustering tightly around the 56–59°F bins reflects model spread in minimum temperatures, where subtle variations in cloud cover, dew points near 55°F, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily minimum by 2–4°F. The 27% implied probability on 47°F or below captures tail-risk scenarios from stronger-than-expected clear-sky cooling, while historical August 24 averages near 65.5°F provide context for the below-normal outlook. Updated model runs and official minimum observations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
47°F or below 51%
66°F or higher 49%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
51%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
10%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
20%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
34%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
1%
66°F or higher
49%
47°F or below 51%
66°F or higher 49%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
$12 Vol.
51%
48-49°F
$55 Vol.
2%
50-51°F
$55 Vol.
10%
52-53°F
$885 Vol.
16%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
20%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
33%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
34%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
11%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
13%
64-65°F
$90 Vol.
1%
66°F or higher
$85 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts project Chicago's overnight low on August 24 near 60–63°F under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer radiational cooling moderated by Lake Michigan. Trader consensus clustering tightly around the 56–59°F bins reflects model spread in minimum temperatures, where subtle variations in cloud cover, dew points near 55°F, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily minimum by 2–4°F. The 27% implied probability on 47°F or below captures tail-risk scenarios from stronger-than-expected clear-sky cooling, while historical August 24 averages near 65.5°F provide context for the below-normal outlook. Updated model runs and official minimum observations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,187End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts project Chicago's overnight low on August 24 near 60–63°F under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer radiational cooling moderated by Lake Michigan. Trader consensus clustering tightly around the 56–59°F bins reflects model spread in minimum temperatures, where subtle variations in cloud cover, dew points near 55°F, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily minimum by 2–4°F. The 27% implied probability on 47°F or below captures tail-risk scenarios from stronger-than-expected clear-sky cooling, while historical August 24 averages near 65.5°F provide context for the below-normal outlook. Updated model runs and official minimum observations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,187End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts project Chicago's overnight low on August 24 near 60–63°F under partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and moderate humidity, consistent with late-summer radiational cooling moderated by Lake Michigan. Trader consensus clustering tightly around the 56–59°F bins reflects model spread in minimum temperatures, where subtle variations in cloud cover, dew points near 55°F, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily minimum by 2–4°F. The 27% implied probability on 47°F or below captures tail-risk scenarios from stronger-than-expected clear-sky cooling, while historical August 24 averages near 65.5°F provide context for the below-normal outlook. Updated model runs and official minimum observations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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